2025 Market in Review: More Sales, Higher Values, and Growing Momentum

2025 Annual Market Recap — Sublette County vs. 2024

1. Number of Homes Sold

2024: 76 homes sold vs. 2025: 93 homes sold
Trend: A 22% increase in annual sales demonstrates renewed buyer activity and stronger transaction volume. More closed deals typically reflect improved buyer confidence and a healthier local market.

2. Total Sales Volume

2024: $39 million vs. 2025: $50 million
Trend: Total dollar volume rose by approximately 28%, driven by a higher number of sales and generally higher individual sale prices. This increase signals both greater activity and higher average values — positive for sellers.

3. Median Sale Price

2024: $450,000 vs. 2025: $492,000
Trend: The 9% increase in median price underscores steady home-value appreciation in Sublette County. This aligns with broader regional trends where rising demand and limited inventory keep upward pressure on pricing. (National conditions expected to continue modest price growth in 2026.)

4. Price Per Square Foot

2024: $264/sq ft vs. 2025: $280/sq ft
Trend: A roughly 6% rise in price per square foot indicates that buyers are willing to pay more for comparable space, reflecting strength in home values as quality homes continue to command higher price tags amid tight local inventory.

5. Expired/Withdrawn or Cancelled Listings

2024: 34 vs. 2025: 62
Trend: The significant increase in expired/withdrawn listings signals that more homes were taken off the market — often a sign that sellers were either priced too high originally or opted to update or reposition their properties rather than sell at a discount. This dynamic is common in markets where demand and pricing strategies must align more closely for a successful sale.

Interest Rates: 2024 vs. 2025 vs. Today

2024 Average Mortgage Rates: Around above 7% for much of the year.

2025 Average Mortgage Rates: Averaged in the mid-6% range — a modest relief from 2024 peaks.

Early 2026 Rates: Today, 30-year fixed rates remain near ~6.2% and near 52-week lows — a notable improvement from the rate volatility of the prior two years.

This downward movement from early 2024 levels has helped soften affordability pressures, allowing more buyers to engage and supporting the higher sales volume in 2025.

2026 Real Estate & Rate Forecast Trends

Interest Rates: Most major housing economists project that mortgage rates will stay in the mid-6% range in 2026, with potential further modest declines — and a possibility of dipping toward around or just below 6% by late 2026.

Homes Sales & Prices: According to national forecasts:

Sales Volume: Slight increases in existing home sales — indicating higher transaction activity compared with 2025.

Home Prices: Modest annual home price gains are projected next year — generally in the low single digits — suggesting a more balanced and sustainable pace of appreciation.

These forecasts reflect a broader expectation that the federal policy environment, improving inventory conditions, and buyer interest will combine to create a more balanced, but not overheated, housing market in 2026.

Experts also note that as mortgage rates ease and inflation pressures moderate, housing affordability will improve modestly — which often translates to more buyer engagement and a broader pool of potential purchasers.

What This Means for You

Buyers:
The improvement in mortgage rates — compared with 2024 — means better financing conditions. With rising inventory and more realistic pricing, buyers can take advantage of a competitive market where updated, move-in ready homes are in strong demand.

Sellers:
While prices have appreciated over the past year, the increase in withdrawn and expired listings reminds us that pricing strategy matters. Homes that are overpriced relative to condition or market expectations often struggle to sell. A well-priced property that meets buyer expectations can still command strong offers — particularly in desirable locations like Pinedale and the broader N Sublette County.

Ready to Make Your Move in 2026?

Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or simply want an accurate valuation of your home, I’d be glad to help you interpret these trends and develop a strategy tailored to your goals in the new year.

Call or text me at 307-231-6486 — let’s use today’s data and expert forecasts to position you for success in 2026.

Warm regards,
Vanessa Cameron
Your Trusted Real Estate Advisor — Sublette County, WY

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